I wrote this a year ago.
I meant to post it on Pleonast, but forgot, and I just found it in my Google Documents. It's called Newcomb's Paradox.
Okay, here's the game.
Lets say that I am The Predictor. Okay... so it's mostly a made up title, but it has meaning. As the Predictor, I can predict the actions of people with spooky accuracy. In fact, I have never been wrong. My predictions are subject to a few rules though. These are:
1) I am not omnipotent or omniscient. I am completely incapable of actually knowing what you will do; I am just very good at guessing.
2) Although I have never been wrong (and let's say I've played this game... 8 million times), I am capable of being wrong.
3) My predictions do not violate your free will. No matter what I predict, it does not predetermine you to fulfill my prediction. You have a choice.
4) Your choices does not, somehow, effect my predictions. My predictions cannot be retroactively corrected, and once I log a prediction, no one can change it, not even me.
Now suppose there are two boxes, which we will call "box A" and "box B."
No matter what happens, box A always has $1000 dollars cash inside it. If you open box A, you get the $1000, no questions asked.
The contents of box two vary according to a prediction I make. Specifically, I give you the choice of one of the following:
1) Open box B.
2) Open both boxes.
If I predict that you will open only box B, box B will contain $1,000,000.
If I predict that you will open both boxes, box B contains nothing.
Would you open both boxes, or just box B?
Mathematically speaking, it is most advantageous to open both boxes, no matter what. No matter what the Predictor predicts, you maximize your winnings by opening both boxes.
...or do you assume that the Predictor will predict correctly, and choose to open only box B?
If the Predictor predicts that you will choose box B, the gain is still greater by opening both boxes, but would the predictor predict that you would use this logic and predict that you would open both boxes?
The more you think about it, the more the decision seems to complicate itself.
What do you think?
I fully expect detailed responses from each of you.
Okay, here's the game.
Lets say that I am The Predictor. Okay... so it's mostly a made up title, but it has meaning. As the Predictor, I can predict the actions of people with spooky accuracy. In fact, I have never been wrong. My predictions are subject to a few rules though. These are:
1) I am not omnipotent or omniscient. I am completely incapable of actually knowing what you will do; I am just very good at guessing.
2) Although I have never been wrong (and let's say I've played this game... 8 million times), I am capable of being wrong.
3) My predictions do not violate your free will. No matter what I predict, it does not predetermine you to fulfill my prediction. You have a choice.
4) Your choices does not, somehow, effect my predictions. My predictions cannot be retroactively corrected, and once I log a prediction, no one can change it, not even me.
Now suppose there are two boxes, which we will call "box A" and "box B."
No matter what happens, box A always has $1000 dollars cash inside it. If you open box A, you get the $1000, no questions asked.
The contents of box two vary according to a prediction I make. Specifically, I give you the choice of one of the following:
1) Open box B.
2) Open both boxes.
If I predict that you will open only box B, box B will contain $1,000,000.
If I predict that you will open both boxes, box B contains nothing.
Would you open both boxes, or just box B?
Mathematically speaking, it is most advantageous to open both boxes, no matter what. No matter what the Predictor predicts, you maximize your winnings by opening both boxes.
...or do you assume that the Predictor will predict correctly, and choose to open only box B?
If the Predictor predicts that you will choose box B, the gain is still greater by opening both boxes, but would the predictor predict that you would use this logic and predict that you would open both boxes?
The more you think about it, the more the decision seems to complicate itself.
What do you think?
I fully expect detailed responses from each of you.
nate
totallyrandom
humankumquat
sellerofpurple
timstarr
belle
moonpi
gromit
kal_el
tramellite
cassiejean
aprilstarr
john_ison_fire
goldielocks91
eladea
Normally I would open both boxes. However, since the predictor has never been wrong before and I'd like a million dollars, then of course I will only open box B.
assuming that those conditions are true, the total amount of money available is out of my control. if you predict that i will only open box B, then i would open both and get $1,001,000, and the prediction would be wrong. if you predict that i will open both boxes, i would open both boxes and get $1,000...
...though if i knew you had predicted that i would open both, i would be somewhat inclined to only open box B, even though i wouldn't get any money, just so the predictor would be wrong.